The USA is falling out of favour with Australians, but luxury travellers are the ones still going.
Australia’s love affair with the United States is starting to cool—and for luxury travellers, that shift is particularly telling.
Fresh data released across early 2025 and into 2026 shows that while Australians are travelling overseas in record numbers, the US is no longer the default “big trip” it once was.
Outbound travel is swinging towards Europe and Asia, even as business‑class cabins to North America stay surprisingly full.
The story isn’t that Australians have stopped going to the US; it’s that they’re thinking much harder about whether it’s worth the money, the politics and the long haul when other destinations are offering softer edges and sharper value.
The numbers: a softening, not a collapse
Multiple data sets paint a consistent picture. The ATIA Travel Trends Report for the year to September 2025 found that overall outbound travel from Australia was climbing strongly, yet trips to the US slipped 0.3 per cent year‑on‑year, with a sharper 12.7 per cent drop in September alone.
At the same time, travel to Japan, Vietnam and China surged, as did bookings to key European markets, suggesting Australians are still travelling—just elsewhere.
US government figures tell a similar story from the other side of the Pacific. The US International Trade Administration reported a 7 per cent fall in Australian visitors in March 2025 compared with March 2024—about 4,500 fewer travellers and the steepest decline since the Covid era. Media reports have highlighted this as the “biggest drop” in years, with analysts pointing to a mix of higher costs, safety concerns and fatigue with the political climate under Donald Trump’s second term.
It’s not a total exodus. SBS analysis notes that by March 2025, the Australian Bureau of Statistics was tracking around 55,870 residents returning from the US that month—up on the previous year—showing that demand is volatile rather than in freefall. But the underlying sentiment has shifted: for many Australians, “the big US trip” no longer feels automatically aspirational.
The luxury paradox: premium cabins full, middle market soft
Look closer, though, and the picture shifts again at the top end. Data from CT Partners and other corporate travel groups shows that corporate and premium travel to North America actually rose in 2025, even as leisure traffic softened. Business‑class demand has been “incredibly robust”, with premium airfares holding up strongly while economy fares eased as more capacity returned.
In practical terms, that means the people still flying regularly to the US from Australia are the ones in lie‑flat beds: senior executives, high‑net‑worth individuals, dual‑nation families and frequent flyers leveraging points.
Qantas has reported a surge in premium‑cabin demand overall, with premium seat growth of around 18 per cent year‑on‑year and premium economy fares climbing into the AUD $4,500+ range on long‑haul routes.
Business class to the UK is now more like AUD $8,000–$10,000 return compared with pre‑Covid figures of $4,000–$5,000; fares to the US are tracking along the same lines.
For luxury hotels, this creates an interesting tension. At the very top of the market—Manhattan’s palace‑style properties, Miami’s branded residences, Napa valley wine estates—Australian money is still flowing, but more strategically.
Agents report that when clients do commit to the US now, they’re more likely to:
- Fly business or premium economy for wellbeing reasons rather than “upgrade if it’s cheap”.
- Consolidate their stay into fewer cities, but spend more per night on genuine destination hotels.
- Layer in wellness and space—think West Coast nature lodges, spa‑driven desert resorts or ski‑luxury in Colorado, rather than a frenetic multi‑city shopping blitz.
Meanwhile, the mid‑range city‑break crowd—who once happily flew economy to NYC or LA, split rooms and packed in outlet malls and NBA games—are increasingly choosing Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo or Paris instead.
Why the US is slipping down the wish‑list
For leisure travellers, three themes come up repeatedly: cost, complexity and comfort.
First, the cost of long‑haul travel has re‑rated the US from “doable splurge” to “serious investment”. The Australian dollar remains relatively weak against the US dollar, making premium hotels, dining, shopping and tipping‑heavy service feel noticeably more expensive than in Europe or Asia.
Tourism analysts note that higher airfares and a weaker exchange rate have “dampened demand”, with travellers favouring destinations where their money goes further—Tokyo over New York, Lisbon over Los Angeles.
Second, the perception of complexity and uncertainty is growing. Stricter border procedures, security theatre and concerns about gun violence and social unrest all come up in agent feedback when clients quietly ask, “Is it really the vibe right now?” Flight Centre’s leisure chief, among others, has publicly acknowledged that US politics is starting to influence Australians’ travel decisions, even if most won’t say so on Instagram.
Finally, there’s the question of emotional comfort.
After years of pandemic and global instability, many travellers want trips that feel nourishing, safe and easy. Asian destinations like Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia are offering a potent mix of culture, food, wellness and relatively gentle price points, while Europe still carries that deep romance and cultural density Australians crave.
Where Australian luxury money is going instead
The clearest winners from this pivot are Asia and Europe. The ATIA trends data shows solid growth into East Asia and a “noteworthy rebound” in major European markets, with Japan, Vietnam and China specifically called out as drawing “more substantial interest” at the expense of the US. These destinations offer several things the US currently struggles to match for Australians:
- Shorter flying times and more attractive premium‑cabin pricing on key routes.
- Strong luxury hotel pipelines—think new Aman, Ritz‑Carlton, Rosewood and Regent openings in Tokyo, Kyoto, Bangkok, Bali and beyond.
- Deep integration of wellness, design and food in the luxury experience, aligning with how affluent Australians now like to travel.
Europe, meanwhile, has regained its grip on the “big once‑every‑few‑years trip” slot. A weaker euro against the US dollar (and sometimes a more favourable cross‑rate vs AUD), combined with dense rail networks and a wave of new luxury openings—from converted palazzi in Italy to next‑level alpine wellness retreats—make it easier to justify the spend than a single‑country US itinerary.
What this means for the future of US luxury travel
None of this means Australia is “breaking up” with the US. The country will remain a bucket‑list destination for Broadway shows, California road trips, ski seasons and visits to friends and family. But the data suggests that the automatic, almost nostalgic preference for America is fading.
For the US to reclaim its place on Australian luxury travellers’ wish‑lists, it will need to work harder on three fronts:
- Value – not necessarily cheaper, but clearer, richer value: elevated hotel partnerships, wellness inclusions, better‑designed stopovers and more seamless premium experiences door‑to‑door.
- Reassurance – around safety, entry, health care and political volatility, particularly for families and solo travellers.
- Experience design – trips built around nature, wellness, art and food—not just shopping and theme parks—so the US competes directly with Europe and Asia on depth of experience.
For now, the message from the Australian market is clear: we’re still travelling, and spending, and increasingly opting for premium cabins and extraordinary hotels. We’re just not automatically pointing those lie‑flat seats towards Los Angeles or New York—and that, for a country that once treated the US as a default dream, is a significant shift.
